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我们通过分析政府预算、预算外收支和准财政措施判断政府财政政策立场2015年政府预算政策虽有所放松,但地方预算外财政政策趋于收紧政策性银行准财政放贷活动部分抵补地方财政政策收紧我们预计2016年政府财政政策或将进一步放松。赤字率会试探3%的红线2015年财政立场偏中性,2016年或放松我们认为2015年中国政府财政政策立场基本保持中性。为了准确把握政府财政政策立场,我们分析了政府预算、预算外收支和准财政活动等三个方面的财政政策。2015年财政预算实施一直处于扩张状态。我们估算2015年政府财政赤字率或达2.7%,较2014年实际
We judge the position of government fiscal policy by analyzing the government budget, extra-budgetary revenue and expenditure and quasi-fiscal measures Although the government budget policy has been relaxed in 2015, the fiscal policies of local extra-budgetary fiscal tend to be tightened. The policy banks quasi-financial lending activities partially offset the local fiscal Policy Tightening We expect the government fiscal policy in 2016 to further ease. The deficit rate will test 3% of the red line 2015 fiscal position is neutral, 2016 or relax We think the government’s fiscal policy stance in 2015 will remain basically neutral. In order to accurately grasp the position of the government’s fiscal policy, we analyzed three aspects of the government’s budget, extra-budgetary revenue and expenditure and quasi-fiscal activities. The 2015 budget implementation has been in an expansion. We estimate the government fiscal deficit rate in 2015 to reach 2.7%, compared with the actual in 2014