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农作物病虫害的预报方法有两类,一是常用的实验生态生物学方法,二是数理统计法。这两类方法各有优缺点,二者结合起来运用,可以达到取长补短的目的。 在库尔勒垦区,警纹地老虎同黄地老虎混合发生,这给测报和防治带来了困难。在地老虎发生量预报方面,以往仅仅进行定性预报,而没有进行定量分析预报,因而早春田间地老虎第一代的防治往往有盲目性。近几年,我们整理、分析了本地1963—1981年春季地老虎发生资料,依据警纹地老虎的生物学和生态学特性,结合气象资料,应用相关回归预测法,对棉田警纹地老虎第一代发生数量进行定性、定量分析,解决了早春棉田第一代幼虫发生量的中短期预报问题。
There are two types of crop pest forecasting methods, one is commonly used methods of experimental ecological biology, and the other is mathematical statistics. Both of these methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, and the two can be used together to achieve the goal of complementarity. In the Korla reclamation area, the police tiger land tiger mixed with the yellow tiger, which gives the report and prevention has brought difficulties. In the field of the amount of land tiger forecast, in the past only qualitative forecast, but did not carry out quantitative analysis and forecasting, so the first generation of early spring field tiger prevention and control are often blind. In recent years, we have compiled and analyzed the data of local tiger occurrences in the spring of 1963-1981. Based on the biological and ecological characteristics of the tiger spotted tiger, combined with meteorological data and the application of regression prediction, The generation of the number of generation qualitative and quantitative analysis, to solve the cotton production in early spring the first generation of short-term mid-term forecast problem.