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通过对我国小麦价格波动的供求关系和外部冲击因素进行实证分析,研究表明:生产成本、竞争作物价格、收入水平、市场化改革政策以及自然灾害等因素会对小麦市场价格产生正向影响,同时上期市场价格对小麦市场价格起到反向作用。因此,国家应有针对性地采取措施稳定农业生产资料市场;加强对农户的生产指导和信息服务,减少农户生产的盲目性;在制定小麦和其他作物扶持政策时,要充分考虑两者之间相互的影响;进一步完善宏观调控政策,防止市场自身缺陷对小麦价格的影响。
Through the empirical analysis of the supply and demand of wheat price fluctuation in our country and the external impact factors, the research shows that the factors of production cost, competitive crop prices, income level, market-oriented reform policies and natural disasters will have a positive impact on the market price of wheat, meanwhile, The previous market price played a reverse role in the market price of wheat. Therefore, the state should take targeted measures to stabilize the market for agricultural means of production; strengthen the guidance and information services of farmers and reduce the blindness of farmers' production; and when formulating policies to support wheat and other crops, give due consideration to both Mutual influence; to further improve the macro-control policies to prevent market imperfections on wheat prices.