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在实际应用中，存在着一类具有“生命性质”的变化过程。所谓“生命性质”是指过程随着时间的变化要经历四个阶段，即：Ⅰ兴起阶段；Ⅱ上升阶段；Ⅲ稳定阶段；Ⅳ衰减阶段。油气田的开发过程就属于这一类现象，文献［１］中的“生命旋回”模型曾用于研究这类问题，但过于理想化。对于变化复杂的具有“生命性质”的变化过程的拟合和预测，本文给出了一种新的统计模型，并给出了用规划的思想确定参数的方法，经过辽河油田的验证是较为理想的，对油田开发规划中预测起重大作用。
In practice, there is a kind of “life-changing” process. The so-called “nature of life” refers to the process of change over time to go through four stages, namely: Ⅰ rise stage; Ⅱ rising stage; Ⅲ stable stage; Ⅳ decay stage. The development of oil and gas fields belongs to this category. The “life cycle” model in [1] has been used to study such problems, but it is too idealistic. For the fitting and forecasting of the changing process with “life character”, this paper presents a new statistical model and gives the method of determining the parameters with the idea of planning. It is ideal after verification in Liaohe Oilfield Of the oilfield development planning plays a significant role in forecasting.