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为了深入分析和探讨昆虫发育与环境温度的关系,在恒温(15～37℃)和交替变温(12/18～34/40℃)下测定了棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera蛹的发育历期(d),分别用线性模型和非线性模型(Logan模型、Lactin模型和王氏模型)拟合其发育率(1/d)数据。结果表明,这3个非线性模型能更准确地描述发育率与温度之间的曲线关系,判定系数(R2)在0.9878～0.9991之间。对全部观测数据的进一步研究表明,只要有6个分布合适的观测数据,就可以用这些非线性模型获得相当满意的估测效果。如果缺乏高温下的测定数据,用非线性模型预测的昆虫发育率可能失真。分析了蛹在恒温和变温下发育率差异的可能原因,讨论了应用这3个非线性模型预测蛹期发育的优点和缺点,指出用非线性模型取代线性日.度模型进行害虫发生预测和益虫饲养管理的合理性和必要性。
In order to further analyze and discuss the relationship between insect development and environmental temperature, the developmental duration (d) of the pupae of Helicoverpa armigera was determined at constant temperature (15 ~ 37 ℃) and alternating temperature (12/18 ~ 34/40 ℃) The growth rate (1 / d) data were fitted by linear model and non-linear model (Logan model, Lactin model and Wang model). The results show that the three nonlinear models can describe the relationship between the development rate and temperature more accurately. The determination coefficient (R2) is between 0.9878 and 0.9991. Further studies of all observed data show that as long as there are 6 well-distributed observations, these nonlinear models can be used to obtain quite satisfactory estimation results. Insect development predicted with a non-linear model may be distorted in the absence of measured data at high temperatures. The possible reasons for the differences in the developmental rates of pupae at constant and variable temperatures were analyzed. The advantages and disadvantages of applying these three nonlinear models to predict the development of pupal stages were discussed. Nonlinear models were used to predict the occurrence of pests and beneficial insects The rationality and necessity of keeping management.