论文部分内容阅读
本文首先分析亚洲主要经济体对美国出口的商品构成,确定这些经济体在美国市场的竞争关系;利用日数据分析这些经济体货币的波动特点,采用协整技术建立汇率波动与对美国出口的数量关系。研究结果表明,汇率变化对出口贸易影响非常小,本币升值不可能减少经常项目的贸易顺差。
In this paper, we first analyze the composition of the commodities exported by the major Asian economies to the United States, and determine the competitive relationship between these economies in the United States market; use the daily data to analyze the fluctuation characteristics of the currencies of these economies; use cointegration techniques to establish the exchange rate fluctuations and the number of exports to the United States relationship. The results show that the impact of exchange rate changes on export trade is very small, the appreciation of the domestic currency is unlikely to reduce the current account of the trade surplus.