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企业集团是个复杂系统,当其自身利益与借贷银行利益发生冲突时,利用其股权结构的特殊性,通过不正常的关联交易、资产转移等“拆东墙补西墙”手段掩盖违约行为,延迟信用风险的爆发。针对该问题,构建基于企业集团的网络结构模型,利用多智能体仿真方法对信用风险延迟效应进行建模与仿真,分析企业集团特征因素对延迟效应的影响机理。研究发现,企业集团的规模和内部关联关系紧密性都会影响企业集团信用风险延迟效应的强度。
Enterprise group is a complex system. When its own interests conflict with the interests of lending bank, it takes advantage of the peculiarities of its ownership structure to cover up the breach of contract through abnormal related transactions and assets transfer , Delaying the outbreak of credit risk. In view of this problem, this paper constructs a network structure model based on enterprise group, uses the multi-agent simulation method to model and simulate the credit risk delay effect, and analyzes the influence mechanism of enterprise group’s characteristics on the delay effect. The study finds that the size of the enterprise group and the closeness of the internal relations affect the strength of the credit risk delay effect of the enterprise group.