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本文阐释了区域公共安全机理的内涵,并梳理了区域公共安全机理的研究现状,在“脆弱性-能力”综合视角下,利用系统动力学的方法结合广东省实际分析了区域公共安全演化的宏观机理,同时利用尖点突变模型结合“乌坎事件”分析了公共安全事件作用机理,为区域公共安全研究和治理提供支持。区域公共安全水平与区域脆弱性水平有着负反馈关系,而与区域公共危机应对能力之间存在着正反馈的回路关系。当脆弱性与能力的对比超出一定限度时就导致公共安全事件的发生。政府应防微杜渐,避免矛盾积累,降低区域的脆弱性水平,同时积极采取措施提高区域的危机应对能力,防止公共安全事件的发生。
This paper explains the connotation of regional public safety mechanism and combs the research status quo of regional public safety mechanism. Using the method of system dynamics combined with Guangdong Province’s actual analysis of the evolution of regional public safety under the perspective of “vulnerability-ability” At the same time, using the cusp catastrophe model combined with the “Wukan Incident”, this paper analyzes the mechanism of public safety incidents and provides support for the research and governance of regional public safety. There is a negative feedback relationship between the level of regional public safety and the level of regional vulnerability, and there is a positive feedback loop between regional public safety and regional public crisis response capability. When the comparison of vulnerability and ability exceeds a certain limit, public safety incidents will be caused. The government should take preventive measures to prevent contradictions and accumulation and reduce the level of regional vulnerability. At the same time, the government should take active measures to improve regional crisis response capabilities and prevent public safety incidents.