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Delphi法是20世纪40年代美国兰德公司研制出的一种直观预测技术,该方法属于专家集体评价法。它是由组织者就拟定的问题设计调查表,通过函件分别向选定的专家组成员征询意见,把收到的意见加以集中整理,并请身份类似的专家对这种意见加以评论和说明,然后把这些经过评论和说明的意见再送给有关专家,专家的意见以匿名方式通过几轮反馈之后渐趋一致。Delphi法不仅可以用于预测领域,而且可以
Delphi method is an intuitive prediction technology developed by the United States Rand in the 1940s. This method belongs to the expert collective evaluation method. It is designed by the organizers to prepare questionnaires on the proposed issues, solicit opinions from selected panelists through correspondence, consolidate the comments received, and invite similar experts to comment and explain such comments, Then these comments, comments, and explanations are sent to the experts concerned, and the opinions of the experts are unanimously agreed after several rounds of feedback. Delphi method can not only be used in the field of prediction, but also