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根据景气循环的原理,采用K-L信息量法对评价指标进行分类,基于扩散指数模型对成都市房地产进行景气循环分析,分析了房地产市场运行轨迹,评价了成都市房地产市场目前所处的景气空间及短期发展趋势。研究结果表明:2000年-2014年,成都市房地产市场呈现出了景气-不景气-景气-不景气四个循环波动的发展状况,预测成都市未来1-2年内仍将持续处于不景气空间。
According to the principle of boom cycle, KL information method is used to classify the evaluation indexes. Based on the diffusion index model, this paper analyzes the real estate cycle in Chengdu, analyzes the running track of the real estate market, evaluates the current boom space of Chengdu real estate market and Short-term development trend. The results show that from 2000 to 2014, the real estate market in Chengdu shows the development of four cycles of boom-depression-boom-recession. It is predicted that Chengdu will continue to be in recession in the next 1-2 years.