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在吉林省柳河县绿色稻米生产区,采用1999～2001年间3月1日后有效积温和水稻二化螟诱捕器诱蛾量数据,用线性模型探讨了当地有效积温和诱捕器诱蛾量之间的关系。由建立的线性模型确定越冬代水稻二化螟发蛾始盛期、高峰期和盛末期所需有效积温分别为238.323、339.418和483.398日·度。采用吉林长春稻区2002～2004年3年间数据比较模型预测值和观察值之间的差异,有效积温的误差值在3.882～26.943日·度之间,相应时间误差为0～3天。模型预测准确性较好,可用以及时指导大田防治。
In the green rice production area of Liuhe County, Jilin Province, using the effective accumulated temperature after March 1, 1999 and the trapping amount of Stem Borer (Stem Borer, Chilo suppressalis) data from 1999 to 2001, the linear model was used to investigate the relationship between the effective accumulated temperature relationship. Based on the established linear model, the effective accumulated temperature needed for the peak, peak and peak periods of overwintering paddy rice stem borer was 238.323, 339.418 and 483.398 days, respectively. Using the data from 2002 to 2004 in Changchun, Jilin Province, the difference between the predicted value and the observed value of the data was compared. The error of effective accumulated temperature was between 3.882 and 26.943 days, and the corresponding time error was 0 to 3 days. Model prediction accuracy is good, available to timely guidance field control.