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在当前我国对外贸易纠纷与摩擦越来越多的情况下,贸易分散可以提供有效的缓解机制,并深刻影响国家的贸易利益和经济安全。本文对1980至2005年我国对外贸易的地区分散程度进行了综合研究。在总量分析的基础上,用HH指数分别计算和分析了进、出口的分散程度,并检验了其与各地区进、出口的格兰杰因果性关系。研究结果显示,我国贸易的分散程度受到国内政策与国际贸易秩序的严重影响,贸易总量也会对其产生限制。消除这几个因素后,贸易结构逐渐趋于分散并保持平稳。另外,进口与出口能够互相推动,贸易分散具有自我加强机制。
At present, with more and more disputes and frictions on foreign trade in our country, the decentralization of trade can provide effective mitigation mechanisms and profoundly affect the country’s trade interests and economic security. This article makes a comprehensive study of the degree of regional dispersion of China’s foreign trade from 1980 to 2005. Based on the total quantity analysis, the HH index was used to calculate and analyze the degree of dispersion of import and export respectively, and the Granger causality relationship between import and export was tested. The results show that the degree of dispersion of China’s trade is seriously affected by the domestic policies and the international trade order, and the total volume of trade will also limit it. After eliminating these several factors, the trade structure tends to be gradually dispersed and stable. In addition, imports and exports can promote each other, decentralized trade has a self-reinforcing mechanism.