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本文综合居民消费习惯、可支配收入、实际利率、消费支出的不确定性、延迟退休等因素,运用预防性储蓄异质性理论构建动态面板模型,以我国31个省市2007-2014年的面板数据为基础,考察延迟退休政策对我国城镇居民预防性储蓄影响。研究结果表明,老年人口抚养比和消费支出不确定性的交叉项、城镇居民基本养老保障基金收入和消费支出不确定性的交叉项对消费支出有显著负影响,即延迟退休对我国城镇居民预防性储蓄有显著影响。建议通过建立完善养老保障体制、改善消费环境以及降低居民未来收入的不确定性等措施,降低居民预防性储蓄刺激消费。
Based on the factors such as resident’s spending habits, disposable income, real interest rate, consumer spending uncertainty and delayed retirement, this paper constructs a dynamic panel model based on the theory of preventive savings heterogeneity. Taking the panel of 31 provinces and cities in China for 2007-2014, Data as the basis to examine the impact of delayed retirement policy on preventive saving of urban residents in China. The results show that the cross-item of the cross-term of the dependency ratio of the elderly population and the uncertainty of consumer spending, the cross-term of the uncertainty of the urban basic old-age security fund income and consumer spending have a significant negative impact on consumer spending, that is, the delay in retirement for urban residents in our country Sexual savings have a significant impact. It is suggested to reduce residents ’precautionary savings to stimulate consumption by establishing and improving the pension security system, improving the consumption environment, and reducing the uncertainty of residents’ future income.