关于辛亥革命的起因和背景研究,史学界已有诸多贡献,但以往的研究就方法论而言,多陈陈相因,几乎无不局限于某一固定的模式。本文从社会变动的角度考察,认为辛亥革命是二十世纪初长江流域城市社会自身内部变动的必然结果。一、近代商品经济的勃兴中国传统社会以几千年来所固有的经济结构——以农业和家庭手工业相结合为基础的自给自足的自然经济——维系着超稳定均衡状态。二十世纪初,尽管广大中国社会的经济结构仍然是自然经济占主导地位,尤其在农村,但在许多城市,如长江流 Historiography has made a lot of contributions to the study of the causes and background of the Revolution of 1911. However, previous studies have shown that Chen Xiang-yin is much more than a fixed one in terms of methodology. From the angle of social change, this paper argues that the Revolution of 1911 is the inevitable result of the internal changes of the urban society in the Yangtze valley in the early twentieth century. I. The Prosperity of Modern Commodity Economy With its inherent economic structure over thousands of years, the self-sufficient natural economy based on the combination of agriculture and family handicrafts, China’s traditional society maintains an ultra-stable equilibrium. At the beginning of the twentieth century, although the economic structure of vast Chinese societies still dominated the natural economy, especially in rural areas, in many cities such as the Yangtze River