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对外贸易是一国或地区与世界经济联系的重要纽带,经济全球化会通过进出口贸易对一国或地区经济带来就业和经济增长等方面的风险。因此研究贸易风险及其区域分布对于稳定区域经济增长与扩大就业具有重要的现实意义。本文以广东省为例,研究贸易风险的经济影响及其区域空间分布。实证研究表明,出口的增长对于地区经济的成长和就业的增长尤其重要;然而,过分地依赖出口,将不利于地区经济的稳健成长,也不利于就业的增长,贸易依存度高的地区一旦出口受阻,则会带来失业增加、产业受损等不利后果。对广东省贸易风险的空间分布分析表明,贸易风险较高的地区主要集中于珠三角地区,尤其是东莞、深圳、惠州和珠海等地区。这对贸易风险防范具有重要指导意义,当全球经济有衰退趋势时,贸易依存度较高的地区应提前做好贸易风险防范的措施。
Foreign trade is an important link between a country or a region and the world economy. Economic globalization risks such as employment and economic growth in a country’s economy through its import and export trade. Therefore, to study trade risks and their regional distribution is of great practical significance for stabilizing regional economic growth and expanding employment. This paper takes Guangdong Province as an example to study the economic impact of trade risk and its regional spatial distribution. Empirical studies show that the growth of exports is particularly important for the growth of the local economy and the growth of employment. However, over-relying on exports will not be conducive to the steady growth of the local economy or the employment growth. Once the areas with high trade dependence are exported Obstruction, it will lead to increased unemployment, industrial damage and other adverse consequences. An analysis of the spatial distribution of trade risks in Guangdong shows that the regions with higher trade risks are mainly concentrated in the PRD region, especially in Dongguan, Shenzhen, Huizhou and Zhuhai. This is of great guiding significance for the prevention of trade risks. When the global economy has a declining trend, regions with high trade dependence should take precautionary measures against trade risks in advance.