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本文基于扩展的C-D生产函数,从人口红利的视角对中国1996~2010年的产业结构变迁、劳动力供给与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果显示:地区间的人口年龄结构存在明显差异,短期的经济增长率变化与人口抚养比关联性不大,而长期的居民人均收入水平与人口总抚养比呈负相关关系。从产业结构来看,第一产业与经济增长呈负相关关系,但第一产业对中西部地区经济增长的贡献度远大于东部地区,第三产业则相反。而东部地区物质资本对经济增长的贡献度远高于中西部地区,同时劳动力的增长率也大于中西部地区。其政策含义是:积极缩小地区间人力资本差距,进一步完善人口政策和劳动力市场体系,促进区域间资源的合理配置,实现经济的均衡发展。
Based on the extended C-D production function, this paper conducts empirical research on the relationship between industrial structure change, labor supply and economic growth in China from 1996 to 2010 from the perspective of demographic dividend. The results show that there are significant differences in population age structure between regions, short-term changes in economic growth rate and population dependency ratio is not significant, while the long-term residents per capita income level and population dependency ratio was negatively correlated. From the perspective of industrial structure, the primary industry is negatively correlated with economic growth. However, the contribution of the primary industry to the economic growth in the central and western regions is far greater than that of the eastern region, while that of the tertiary industry is the opposite. The contribution of material capital in the east to economic growth is much higher than in the central and western regions, and the growth rate of the labor force is also greater than that in the central and western regions. The policy implications are: actively narrowing the gap in human capital among regions, further improving population policies and the labor market system, and promoting the rational allocation of resources among regions so as to achieve balanced economic development.