我们是不是对中国的消费期望过高?中国长期增长的故事确实非常吸引人,但是从历史数据来看,中国的消费增长一直相当平稳。因此,对当前水平的消费增长而言是不是我们对加速增长期望过高?中国有大量储蓄,但并不只是家庭储蓄。对中国私人消费抱繁荣期望的一个关键支撑因素是中国的高储蓄率。但现实是中国储蓄增长的绝大部分来自企业和政府,而不是家庭。在这种情况下,我们是否高估了中国私人消费的潜力呢?中国的消费类上市公司是不是中国消费领域的强者?大多数中国消费类上市公司的财力有限并且品牌忠诚度有待证明。在成本快速变动和竞争加剧面前,这类公司的机会和挑战并存。历史数据表明它们的盈利波动并不比周期型公司小,但股市却给予了更高的估值水平。 Did we expect too much from China’s consumption? The story of China’s long-term growth is indeed very attractive. However, from the historical data, China’s consumption growth has been fairly steady. So is not our expectation of accelerating growth for the current level of consumption growth? There is a lot of savings in China, but not just household savings. A key support factor for China’s prosperity in private consumption is China’s high saving rate. But the reality is that the vast majority of China’s savings growth comes from businesses and governments, not households. Under such circumstances, have we overestimated the potential for private consumption in China? Are China’s consumer listed companies strong in China’s consumption field? Most Chinese public listed companies have limited financial resources and brand loyalty remains to be proved. In the face of rapid cost changes and increased competition, the opportunities and challenges of such companies co-exist. Historical data show that their earnings volatility is not smaller than the cyclical companies, but the stock market has given a higher valuation level.