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2015年以来国际小麦、玉米、大米等谷物价格均呈现不同程度的持续下跌,10月略有回升,全球谷物价格指数下跌30点。贸易萎缩是国际粮价下跌的主要原因,供求基本面是价格下跌的直接原因,出口竞争激烈和美元强势加剧了价格下行压力。预计2015/16年度全球谷物产量略有降低,消费量稳中略升,贸易量继续缩减,库存继续降低,2016年国际市场谷物价格将出现回升。国际粮价的下跌为国内粮价的稳定政策的实施提供了相对宽松的外部环境,但仍要密切关注国际谷物市场的走势。
Since 2015, the prices of grain such as wheat, corn and rice have continued to decline to different extents, slightly rising in October and the global cereal price index has dropped by 30 points. The shrinking trade is the main reason for the drop in international grain prices. The fundamentals of supply and demand are the direct reasons for the price drop. The fierce export competition and the strong dollar have aggravated downward pressure on prices. Global cereal production is expected to decline slightly in 2015/16, consumption steadily increases slightly, trade volume continues to decline, stocks continue to decline and cereal prices in international markets will rebound in 2016. The drop in international grain prices has provided a relatively relaxed external environment for the implementation of the stability policy of domestic grain prices, but we must pay close attention to the trend of the international cereal market.