将现代世界置于历史波动中加以观察时,会浮现出何等的形象?这可从下述五种不同的角度来加以分析。第一,从周期为五十年的长期经济景气循环来进行历史的回顾;第二,最近的经济复苏中所出现的长期波动理论的评述;第三,从康德拉季耶夫的长期波动与现代经济的关系;第四、从由于过去对上述争论忽视了比较货币理论,因而最近特别成为人们议论中心的债务积累剧增问题;第五、对二十一世纪的世界经济展望。 What will emerge from the observation of the modern world in historical fluctuations? This can be analyzed from the following five different perspectives. First, a historical review of long-term economic cycles with a period of 50 years; second, a review of long-term fluctuations in recent economic recovery; third, long-term fluctuations from Kandlayev and Modern economy. Fourth, ignoring the comparative monetary theory in the past due to the above controversy, it has recently become a problem of sharp increase in the debt accumulation of people’s discussion center. Fifthly, the world economic outlook for the 21st century has been raised.