论文部分内容阅读
长江口咸潮灾害使上海陈行水库和青草沙水库面临水资源匮乏的风险。本文从灾害风险角度,以极值统计原理拟合水库河段年最大连续不可取水时间超越概率分布。水库不可取水极值时间和日供水量作为水库缺水的风险因子,蒙特卡罗方法随机模拟分析陈行和青草沙水库的缺水风险。结果表明长江口盐水入侵造成的水库河段不可取水极值分布属于Gumbel-II(Frechet)型极值分布,陈行水库每年缺水事件的最大概率高于80%,青草沙水库仅为3%,与陈行水库实际运行情况及青草沙水库设计要求较一致;发生概率小于1%的巨灾事件中,青草沙水库水资源风险大于陈行水库。
The salinity tide disaster in the Yangtze River Estuary exposes the risk of water shortage in Shanghai’s Chenxing Reservoir and Qingcaosha Reservoir. This paper, from the perspective of disaster risk, fits the probabilistic distribution of the maximum continuous non-recoverable water time exceeded by the statistical principle of extreme value. As the risk factors of water shortage in reservoirs, the extreme non-recoverable water intake of reservoirs and the daily water supply were analyzed. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate and analyze randomly the risk of water deficit in Chenxing and Qingcaosha reservoirs. The result shows that the extreme non-recoverable water distribution caused by salt water intrusion in the Yangtze River estuary belongs to the extreme Gumbel-II (Frechet) type distribution. The maximum probability of annual water deficit in Chenxing Reservoir is over 80% and that of Qingcaosha Reservoir is only 3% , Which is consistent with the actual operation of Chenhang Reservoir and the design requirements of Qingcaosha Reservoir. In the catastrophic event with probability less than 1%, the risk of water resource of Qingcaosha Reservoir is greater than that of Chenxing Reservoir.