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该文基于效用函数理论分析了分项税收对消费的影响机制,在此基础之上使用小波多分辨率分析、向量自回归模型、误差修正模型等方法对这一影响机制进行了实证研究。结果表明,不论是在短期还是在中长期,税收对消费的影响均存在异质性。在短期内商品税、所得税和财产税是消费变动的Granger原因,三者对消费的影响均呈现周期性的震荡衰减趋势。其中,商品税对消费的影响最大,所得税和财产税次之。在中长期,商品税、所得税、财产税和其他税均与消费存在一阶协整关系,财产税对消费具有正向的挤入效应,而商品税、所得税和其他税对消费则具有负向的挤出效应,且财产税的挤入效应大于其他三种税收的挤出效应。综合而言,各种税收对消费的中长期影响大于短期影响。
Based on the theory of utility function, this paper analyzes the mechanism of taxation impact on consumption. Based on this, we use wavelet multiresolution analysis, vector autoregressive model and error correction model to verify the mechanism. The results show that both in the short and medium term, the impact of tax on consumption is heterogeneous. In the short term, commodity tax, income tax and property tax are the Granger causes of the change in consumption. The impact of the three on consumption shows a cyclical decay trend. Among them, the impact of commodity tax on consumer spending the most, income tax and property tax second. In the medium and long term, there is a first-order cointegration relationship between commodity tax, income tax, property tax and other taxes and consumption. Property tax has a positive crowding-in effect on consumption while commodity tax, income tax and other taxes have a negative impact on consumption The crowding-in effect of property tax is greater than the crowding-out effect of the other three kinds of tax revenue. Taken together, the long-term effects of various taxes on consumption are greater than the short-term effects.