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本文选取郑州商品交易所菜籽油日度期货与现货价格为研究对象,基于VAR模型对二者之间的相互关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明,菜籽油期货价格与现货价格间存在着长期均衡关系,期货市场与现货市场价格趋势表现出正向相关性和趋势一致性,并且菜籽油期货价格单向引导其现货价格。基于菜籽油期货现货市场价格表现出的特点,本文提出充分利用菜籽油期货市场功能,促进菜籽油价格平稳的相关政策建议。
In this paper, we select the daily futures and spot prices of rapeseed oil in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange as the research object, and make empirical research on the relationship between them based on VAR model. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the price of rapeseed oil futures and the spot price, the price trend of the futures market and the spot market show a positive correlation and a trend of consistency, and the price of rapeseed oil futures leads its spot price in one direction. Based on the characteristics of spot market price of rapeseed oil futures, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations that make full use of rapeseed oil futures market function and promote the stable price of rapeseed oil.