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应用通径分析和回归分析原理,对1991～2009年耒阳市水稻纹枯病发生的历史资料进行分析,筛选出了影响早、晚稻纹枯病发生程度的主导因子,即5月平均气温、8月下旬至9月中旬降雨量,并建立了早、晚稻纹枯病病情指数预测模型:y=-91.855 5+2.109 2x1+0.064 2x2+0.336 0x3+0.614 8x4;y=13.156 9+0.233 5x1+0.104 7x2-0.151 7x3+0.0166 6x4。
By using the principle of path analysis and regression analysis, the historical data of rice sheath blight occurrence in Xingyang from 1991 to 2009 were analyzed, and the dominant factors affecting the occurrence of early and late rice sheath blight were selected, that is, the average temperature in May, Rainfall from late August to mid-September, and the prediction model of early and late rice sheath blight disease index was established: y = -91.855 5 + 2.109 2x1 + 0.064 2x2 + 0.336 0x3 + 0.614 8x4; y = 13.156 9 + 0.233 5x1 + 0.104 7x2-0.151 7x3 + 0.0166 6x4.