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最近的观测表明赤道太平洋中部及东部的水温略低于拉尼娜事件的阈值,但大气与海洋的状态还不足以完全支持转为弱拉尼娜现象。本研究基于地球系统模式FIO-ESM和集合调整卡尔曼滤波同化方案建立的短期气候同化和预测系统,进行了1992-01-01—2016-10-31的模式同化,结果表明同化系统能够为预测提供较好的初始场。随后对2016—2017年拉尼娜事件的状态以及中国近海地区气温和降水异常进行了未来6个月的预测,结果表明赤道太平洋会在2016年年底继续降温,Nio3.4区海温异常将持续略低于拉尼娜事件的阈值-0.5℃,说明2016—2017年为弱拉尼娜事件,2017年春季东太平洋继续降温,表明此次拉尼娜事件可能会持续较长时间。预测结果同时也表明2016年冬季至2017年春季中国近海地区存在着北高南低的气温异常分布,中国南部地区降水存在负异常。拉尼娜带来的极端天气与气候异常会对中国沿岸地区带来巨大影响,但总体来说2016—2017年拉尼娜事件对中国的影响相对较弱。
Recent observations indicate that the water temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is slightly below the La Nina threshold, but the state of the atmosphere and the oceans are not yet sufficient to fully support the transition to weak La Niña. In this study, the model assimilation and prediction system based on the FIO-ESM of Earth system and the set-adjusted Kalman filter assimilation scheme was used to carry out the model assimilation from January 1992 to January 2016 and from October to October 31. The results show that the assimilation system can predict Provide better initial field. Subsequently, the state of La Nina 2016-2017 and the temperature and precipitation anomalies in offshore China are predicted for the next 6 months. The results show that the Equatorial Pacific will continue to cool down by the end of 2016 and the SSTA in Nio 3.4 will continue Slightly lower than the threshold of La Nina event of -0.5 ℃, indicating a weak La Nina event in 2016-2017 and a continued cooling of the East Pacific in spring 2017, indicating that this La Niña event may take a long time. The forecast results also show that there is an anomalous north-south-south temperature anomaly distribution in China’s offshore region from winter 2016 to spring 2017, with negative anomalies in precipitation in southern China. The extreme weather and climate anomalies caused by La Niña can have a huge impact on China’s coastal areas, but overall the La Niña event in 2016-2017 has a relatively weaker impact on China.