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为了计算郁江和西江干流洪水遭遇的概率,依据Copula函数理论及分析方法,利用实测洪水资料进行参数估计,建立了几种常用的Copula函数,并对它们拟合的效果进行了对比,最后选用Clayton Copula函数展开分析.结果表明,随着西江干流洪水等级的增加,郁江发生同一大洪水的条件概率增加的趋势不明显;郁江与西江大洪水遭遇的概率非常小,郁江和西江干流50年一遇以上洪水同时发生的概率不超过0.05%,在西江干流发生大于50年一遇以上洪水的条件下,郁江发生大于50年一遇以上洪水的概率仅为2.73%.该成果可为西江流域的防洪控制水库在制定联合调度规则时利用两江大洪水错开的特点,充分发挥水库的调洪能力提供依据.
In order to calculate the probability of flooding in the mainstream of the Yujiang River and the Xijiang River, based on the Copula function theory and analytical method, the parameters of the measured flood data are used to estimate the probability. Several commonly used Copula functions are established, and their fitting effects are compared. Finally, Clayton Copula function. The results show that with the increase of the flood level of the mainstream of the Xijiang River, the conditional probability of the same flood in Yujiang River tends to increase slightly. The probability of encountering the Great Flood in Yujiang River and Xijiang River is very small. The probability of simultaneous occurrence of the above floods does not exceed 0.05% and the incidence of floods more than 50 years in Yujiang River occurred only 2.73% when more than 50 years of flood occurred in the main stream of Xijiang River.These results can be used for flood control in the Xijiang River Basin Controlling reservoirs make full use of the flood control ability of reservoirs by making use of the characteristics of staggered floods in the two rivers when formulating the joint regulation rules.