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本文对检测致癌物的遗传毒理试验与动物致癌试验相结合的序贯判别方法进行成本-效益分析。结果表明,这种方法具有显著的社会经济效益。如忽略各遗传毒理试验间的不独立性,并设致癌性先验概率为0.1,则遗传毒理学试验次数可限制在5次左右。当受试物致癌性的后验概率小于0.03时判为非致癌物,大于0.7时判为致癌物。
In this paper, a cost-benefit analysis is made on the sequential discriminant methods of combining genotoxicity testing of carcinogens with animal carcinogenicity testing. The results show that this method has significant social and economic benefits. If we neglect the independence of each genotoxicity test and set the prior probability of carcinogenicity as 0.1, the number of genotoxicity tests can be limited to about 5 times. When the test substance carcinogenic posterior probability of less than 0.03 was judged as non-carcinogen, greater than 0.7 was sentenced as carcinogens.