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为了遏制北京“摊大饼”式的城市发展模式,促进土地资源的集约、高效利用,引导国土空间合理布局,划定北京城市增长边界成为重要举措。本研究从城市内生发展动力角度,将遗传神经网络嵌入CA模型,建立北京城市增长边界预测模型,选定了自然、人口经济、区位、邻域、土地利用类型和政策规划6类因素共18个影响因子,预测北京市城市增长弹性边界。同时,从土地自身生态承载能力角度,用建设用地适宜性评价方法,选定了地形、地貌、公园水域、土地利用现状、自然保护区、城市用地距离为影响因子,划定北京市城市增长刚性边界。结果表明,利用该模型预测北京市2025年城市增长边界,总的面积匹配值为96%,模型精度较高;2025年北京市弹性增长边界总面积为1738.98 km2,刚性增长边界总面积为3297.01 km2。基于GANN-CA模型的城市增长边界划定方法对确定城市未来扩张方向有指导作用,可为城市规划和发展政策的制定提供依据。
In order to curb Beijing’s “big city” model of urban development, to promote the intensive and efficient use of land resources, and to guide the rational distribution of land and resources, the delineation of Beijing’s urban growth boundary has become an important measure. This study embeds genetic neural network into the CA model from the perspective of urban endogenous development and establishes the urban growth boundary prediction model of Beijing. Six types of factors including nature, population economy, location, neighborhood, land use type and policy planning are selected An Impact Factor to Predict Urban Growth Flexible Boundary in Beijing. At the same time, from the perspective of the ecological carrying capacity of the land, we select the topography, landform, park water area, land use status, nature reserves and the urban land use distance as the influencing factors to determine the urban growth rigidity boundary. The results show that the model predicts the urban growth boundary of Beijing in 2025 with a total area matching value of 96% and a high accuracy of model. In 2025, the total area of elastic growth boundary in Beijing is 1738.98 km 2, and the total area of rigid growth boundary is 3297.01 km 2 . The urban growth boundary delineation method based on the GANN-CA model can guide the future expansion of cities, which can provide the basis for the formulation of urban planning and development policies.