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本文基于协整、线性和非线性Granger因果关系检验探讨了我国1961-2010年间二氧化碳排放强度(CO2)和经济增长(GDP)之间的关系。结果表明,我国二氧化碳排放强度和经济增长有着长期的均衡关系,两者之间的长期关系和因果关系的证据,意味着经济发展会导致环境质量下降,从长期来看,我国经济增长会对的二氧化碳排放强度产生不利影响。此外,线性和非线性Granger因果检验表明,我国二氧化碳排放强度和经济增长之间有长期的单向因果关系,即GDP增长是CO2排放强度的原因。从建议政府制定政策应该考虑目前的环境因素,这有助于让政策制定者和决策者重视保持经济增长的同时遏制碳排放量。
Based on cointegration, linear and nonlinear Granger causality test, this paper discusses the relationship between carbon dioxide emission intensity (CO 2) and economic growth (GDP) in China from 1961 to 2010. The results show that the intensity of our country’s carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth have a long-term equilibrium relationship, the long-term relationship between the two and causal evidence that economic development will lead to the decline in environmental quality in the long run, the economic growth in our country will be The intensity of carbon dioxide emissions have a negative impact. In addition, the linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests show that there is a long-term one-way causal relationship between the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in China, that is, GDP growth is the reason for the intensity of CO2 emissions. From suggesting that the government formulate policies should take into account the current environmental factors, which will help policy makers and policy makers attach importance to maintaining economic growth while curbing carbon emissions.