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为利用灰色模型ＧＭ（１，１）预测肾综合征出血热（ＨＦＲＳ）年发病率。采用建德市肾综合征血热１９７０～１９９７年年发病率资料建立ＧＭ（１，１）模型，预测１９９８～２００２年ＨＦＲＳ年发病率。结果表明实验预测阶段（１９９３～１９９７年）年发病率结果同实际值吻合，模型精度等级检验良好，能采用ＧＭ（１，１）模型预测１９９８～２００２年ＨＦＲＳ年发病率。表明ＧＭ（１，１）可作为一项快速和简便的方法预测ＨＦＲＳ发病情况，为控制ＨＦＲＳ流行提供一项辅助手段。
To predict the annual incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) using the gray model GM (1,1). The GM (1,1) model was established by using the annual incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jiande City from 1970 to 1997 to forecast the annual incidence of HFRS from 1998 to 2002. The results showed that the annual incidence rate in the experimental prediction period (from 1993 to 1997) was consistent with the actual value, and the accuracy of the model test was good. The GM (1,1) model can be used to predict the annual incidence of HFRS from 1998 to 2002. This indicates that GM (1,1) can be used as a quick and easy method to predict the incidence of HFRS and provide an aid to control the epidemic of HFRS.