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农业是温室气体排放的第二大人为因素源,探寻农业生产碳排影响因素,对实现农业节能减排有重要意义。以中国粮食主产区华中地区为背景,综合运用IPCC(2006)推荐的方法估算华中地区1994~2013年种植业生产的碳排放量,基于Kaya恒等式、灰色关联模型对华中地区种植业生产的碳排放驱动因素进行识别并探讨主要影响因素的贡献。结果显示:(1)华中地区1994~2013年种植业生产碳排放呈上升趋势,2013年达到了11 257.63万t CO2-eq。其中,河南省、湖北省、湖南省的种植业生产碳排放增幅分别为101.29%、24.88%、21.73%;(2)在过去的20 a中,种植业生产效率、种植业结构、农业劳动力规模对农业生产碳排放具有一定抑制作用,而农业经济发展则促进了种植业生产碳排,具有一定的推动作用;(3)近20 a的农业发展过程中,华中地区种植业生产碳排放最主要的贡献因子是种植业结构,其次是农业从业人口、种植业产值、人均农用物资消耗量。
Agriculture is the second largest anthropogenic source of greenhouse gas emissions and exploring the influencing factors of carbon emissions from agricultural production is of great significance to the realization of energy conservation and emission reduction in agriculture. Taking the central grain producing area of China as the background, this paper comprehensively uses the method recommended by IPCC (2006) to estimate the carbon emissions from planting industry in Central China from 1994 to 2013. Based on the Kaya identity and gray relational model, The drivers of emissions are identified and the contribution of the main influencing factors is explored. The results showed that: (1) The carbon emissions from planting in Central China increased from 1994 to 2013, reaching 115.2567 million t CO2-eq in 2013. Among them, the growth of carbon emissions from crop production in Henan, Hubei and Hunan Provinces was 101.29%, 24.88% and 21.73% respectively; (2) In the past 20 years, the plantation production efficiency, planting structure and agricultural labor force (3) In the process of agricultural development in the past 20 years, the main carbon emission in planting industry in Central China is the most important The contribution factor is the planting structure, followed by the agricultural population, the output value of planting and the consumption of agricultural materials per capita.