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介绍了风险数值分类的方法,弥补了目前风险分类多从定性角度进行描述,缺少客观性的缺陷。以与当前生活紧密相关的44种风险为样本,基于风险管理过程和大众对风险的认知过程所关注的风险属性要素,采用Havashi数量化理论Ⅲ的数值分析法,在MATLAB程序的支持下,计算各种风险的得分,进行风险聚类,得到综合风险分类结果。结果表明,44种风险被分成了简单风险、复杂风险、模糊风险/不确定风险。分类结果体现了国际风险管理理事会IRGC注重风险性质认知的理念,符合风险管理的实际需要。
The method of numerical classification of risk is introduced to make up for the shortcomings that the current risk classification is mostly described from a qualitative point of view and lack of objectivity. Taking the 44 kinds of risks closely related to current life as a sample, based on the risk attribute elements which are the focus of the risk management process and the public cognizance process of risk, the numerical analysis method of Havashi quantitative theory Ⅲ is used. With the support of MATLAB program, Calculate the scores of various risks and conduct risk clustering to get the comprehensive risk classification results. The results show that 44 kinds of risks are divided into simple risks, complex risks and fuzzy risks / uncertain risks. The classification results reflect the notion of IRGC focusing on the recognition of risk nature and meeting the actual needs of risk management.