中国核心CPI随机游走识别和异常点分析

来源 :数量经济技术经济研究 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:yiwen_yu
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
核心CPI能更真实地反映宏观经济运行趋势。然而,如何测算核心CPI一直备受关注。本文构建了一组带有异常因子的随机游走模型,利用MCMC法和Gibbs抽样,对时变参数进行估计,不仅从CPI中分离出核心CPI,而且对非核心CPI,通过捕捉到的异常点,发现与中国政策效应相吻合。本文仅利用了中国单一的CPI数据,不需要CPI子类权重测算及其再分配。进一步,通过与Wind核心CPI比较,以及Marques等(2003)核心CPI评价方法的检验,发现本文的核心CPI更具合理性和科学性。
其他文献
会议
  In this study,the technologies of DNA pool,PCR-direct sequencing and PCR-SSCP were used to screen the SNPs of TFB2M gene in Guizhou White Goat.We analyzed t
会议
  Due to the nonlinear structure,traditional approach for error estimates of fully discrete finite element methods for nonlinear parabolic equations often req
会议
  In this talk we propose a multilevel correction method to solve optimal control problems constrained by elliptic equations with the finite element method.In
会议
  When approximating PDE eigenvalue problems by numerical methods such as finite difference and finite element methods,it is common knowledge that only a smal
会议
  In this talk,we will show how to use DSP builder,OpenCL and QSys tools to design a system easily in future by building the frame work with the kernel proces
会议
氢氧直接合成过氧化氢以其反应的原子经济性、工艺的简单性和产品的清洁性成为催化领域的研究热点。本文研究了氢氧直接合成过氧化氢的催化体系,并在膜反应器中对该合成反应进行探索性实验。采用等体积浸渍法制备了一系列用于氢氧直接合成过氧化氢反应的负载型钯催化剂,考察了催化剂中钯的负载量、钯源、载体预处理以及溶剂对活性的影响,结合XPS表征分析推断了催化剂表面活性组分的价态。结果发现,氢气在溶剂中的溶解度越大,
  Real-valued separable wavelets and framelets are known to have some shortcomings; in particular,they lack directionality for high dimensional problems such
会议
西藏血蜱Haemaphysalis tibetensis Hoogstraal,1965仅分布于西藏和甘肃,是青藏高原地区重要的病原菌载体。目前已对西藏血蜱形态学、种群动态、生活史和分子系统学等方面做了
People have different views on MOOCs The truth is they are neither… Remember,there are different levels of learning
会议