论文部分内容阅读
本文通过构建结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)考察了影响中国出口的供需因素的重要程度以及各种冲击对出口的动态影响。研究结果表明:国内消费、国内投资、国外收入以及人民币实际有效汇率均是中国出口波动的主要影响因素,但各种因素形成的冲击对出口的影响有所差异。其中,投资冲击的影响主要体现为短期的正向效应;消费冲击短期内会促进出口扩张,而长期却会造成出口下滑;国外收入冲击会造成出口的持久增长,但增速会逐渐放缓;汇率冲击会在大部分时间对出口产生负向影响。总体来看,无论短期还是长期,国内供给对出口的影响始终比国外需求更大一些。
This paper examines the importance of supply and demand factors affecting China’s exports and the dynamic impact of various shocks on exports through the construction of a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR). The results show that domestic consumption, domestic investment, foreign income and real effective exchange rate of Renminbi all are the main influencing factors of the export fluctuation in China. However, the impact of various factors on the export is different. Among them, the impact of investment shocks is mainly reflected in the short-term positive effect; the impact of consumption in the short term will promote export expansion, while in the long run will result in a decline in exports; foreign income shocks will result in sustained growth in exports, but the growth rate will gradually slow down; Exchange rate shocks will have a negative impact on exports most of the time. Overall, the impact of domestic supply on exports has always been greater than that of foreign demand, both in the short and long term.