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目的统计分析邯郸市无偿献血者梅毒检测阳性率的变化规律并预测其发展趋势,以便进一步采取措施保障采供血安全和降低血液报废。方法用ELISA方法检测邯郸市2002~2013年672 866名献血者抗-TP,统计检测结果并录入SPSS17.0进行曲线拟合,选取拟合效果最好的曲线方程,对梅毒阳性率变化趋势进行预测。结果2002~2013年邯郸市无偿献血者梅毒检测总阳性率为2.46‰,年份阳性率拟合效果最好,且R2最高的曲线为3次多项式函数,R2=0.916,P<0.001,拟合方程为Y=1.105+0.304X-0.001X3。预测邯郸市2014年无偿献血人群梅毒阳性率为2.18‰,95%置信区间上限为2.94‰,下限为1.42‰。结论对无偿献血人群梅毒阳性率的回顾性统计分析能够得到科学的趋势预测结果,对献血者招募,预测血液报废率,保障血液安全,以及开展相应的疾病预防工作均具有积极的指导意义。
Objective To analyze and analyze the regularity of syphilis positive rate in non-compensation blood donors in Handan City and predict its development trend so as to take further measures to ensure the safety of blood supply and blood supply and to reduce blood waste. Methods The anti-TP of 672 866 blood donors from 2002 to 2013 in Handan City was detected by ELISA. The curve was fitted by SPSS 17.0. The curve equation with the best fitting effect was selected. The trend of the positive rate of syphilis was analyzed prediction. Results The positive rate of syphilis detection in non-compensation blood donors from 2002 to 2013 in Handan City was 2.46 ‰, and the positive rate of year was the best. The highest curve of R2 was the third-order polynomial function, R2 = 0.916, P <0.001. Y = 1.105 + 0.304X-0.001X3. The positive rate of syphilis was 2.18 ‰ in 2014, with a 95% confidence interval of 2.94 ‰ and a lower limit of 1.42 ‰. Conclusion The retrospective statistical analysis of the positive rate of syphilis in the blood donors can get the scientific trend forecast results. It has positive guiding significance to the recruitment of blood donors, forecasting the blood reject rate, ensuring the blood safety and carrying out the corresponding disease prevention work.