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本文利用2008年中国48个典型湖泊水质横截面数据,通过拟合湖泊水质环境库兹涅茨曲线对湖泊水质与经济发展之间关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:湖泊水质库兹涅茨曲线存在,并呈现出经典的倒“U”型,湖泊总磷、总氮浓度拐点分别出现在湖区人均生产总值为47088元和53289元附近;国内大多数湖泊仍处于水质倒“U”型曲线的左半段,已经越过EKC拐点的湖泊仍有近一半的湖泊水质劣于(EKC表示的)平均水平。在现阶段环境政策相对稳定的假设下,未来几年我国湖泊水质整体水平还将随着经济增长趋于恶化。
In this paper, 48 typical lake water quality cross-section data of China in 2008 were used to verify the relationship between lake water quality and economic development by fitting the Kuznets curve of lake water quality and environment. The results show that the curve of lake water quality Kuznets exists, and the classic “U” shape is shown. The inflection points of total phosphorus and total nitrogen in lakes appear in the lake area with the per capita GDP of 47,088 yuan and 53,889 yuan, respectively. Most of the lakes in China are still in the left half of the U-shaped water quality curve, and nearly half of the lakes that have crossed the EKC inflection point are still below the average (expressed as EKC). Under the assumption of relatively stable environmental policies at this stage, the overall level of lake water quality in our country will also deteriorate with economic growth in the next few years.