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目的:建立新发传染病风险评估指标体系,为研究新发传染病在绍兴市流行的风险提供科学的方法。方法:采用层次分析法,根据专业知识和专家的建议,结合绍兴市实际情况,确定了新发传染病的风险因子,然后分别计算出各项风险因子的组合权重系数,建立传染病风险评估指标体系。结果:从传染病的传染源、传播途径和预防控制措施3方面,确定了传染源国内分布、国际分布等14项风险因素,组合权重系数较高的为传染源国内分布(0.2416)、自然因素的影响(0.1365)社会因素的影响(0.1365)和传染源国际分布(0.1365),通过该评估体系,有效地对绍兴市新发传染病进行风险评估。结论:建立的新发传染病风险评估体系,能有效地评估传染病发生、流行的风险。
Objective: To establish a new risk assessment index system for infectious diseases and provide a scientific method for studying the epidemic risks of emerging infectious diseases in Shaoxing. Methods: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), based on professional knowledge and advice of experts, combined with the actual situation in Shaoxing City, the risk factors of new infectious diseases were determined. Then, the combined weight coefficients of each risk factor were calculated, and the risk assessment index of infectious diseases system. Results: 14 risk factors such as domestic distribution and international distribution of infection sources were identified from sources of infection, transmission routes and prevention and control measures of infectious diseases. The higher the combination weight coefficient was the domestic distribution of infection sources (0.2416), the natural factors (0.1365), social factors (0.1365), and international distribution of infection sources (0.1365). Through this assessment system, the risk assessment of new infectious diseases in Shaoxing City was effectively carried out. Conclusion: The risk assessment system of newly-developed infectious diseases established can effectively assess the risk of epidemic and epidemic of infectious diseases.