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湖南经济波动实证研究以经济增长率波动为主要考察对象 ,所用考察指标是 GDP增长率。按照“谷-谷”法划分 ,195 3～ 1999年的 47年中 ,湖南经济增长率的波动共呈现出 12个周期。纵向上 ,改革前后湖南经济波动的状态特征悬殊 ,波动是由剧烈转向平缓。横向上 ,湖南经济波动幅度大于全国经济波动。未来湖南经济波动的理想走势是 :纵向上 ,保持波动由剧烈转向平缓的趋势 ,进一步缓和波动程度 ,努力实现微波化 ;横向上 ,力争湖南经济波动幅度低于全国水平
Empirical Study on Economic Fluctuation in Hunan Province The main study object is the fluctuation of economic growth rate. The index used in this study is the GDP growth rate. According to the “valley-valley” law, the fluctuations of the economic growth rate in Hunan showed a total of 12 cycles in the 47 years from 1953 to 1999. Vertically, the characteristics of the state of Hunan’s economic fluctuations before and after the reform are disproportionate, and the fluctuations have shifted from violent to moderate. Horizontal, Hunan’s economic fluctuations greater than the national economic fluctuations. In the future, the ideal trend of economic fluctuation in Hunan is that: in the vertical direction, maintaining the tendency of volatility from drastic to gradual, further easing the degree of volatility and making efforts to achieve the goal of microwaveization; in the horizontal direction, we should strive to achieve a level of economic fluctuation in Hunan that is below the national level