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坡面土壤侵蚀的发生是植被、土壤、降水、地形等各因素共同及相互作用的综合结果。该文旨在用逐步回归分析法从众多影响因子中选出对沈阳地区水土流失影响最大的因子,为沈阳地区人民生产及实践提供指导性意见。当自变量很多时,其中有的因素可能对因变量的影响不是很大,而且各因子之间可能是不完全独立的,会有种种相互作用关系。在这种情况下可以采用逐步回归分析方法,进行影响因子的筛选,建立“最优”回归方程,这样建立的回归模型预测效果会更好。为了确定本地区天然降雨裸坡侵蚀的影响因子,利用10°,15°两个坡度进行降雨试验,对坡度、降雨量、降雨强度,最大瞬时雨强、降雨历时5个影响因子对产沙量进行逐步回归分析,结果表明:最大瞬时雨强、坡度及降雨量3个因子对产沙量影响显著。产沙量与各因子呈线性关系。
The occurrence of soil erosion on slope is the result of the common and interaction of vegetation, soil, precipitation, topography and other factors. This paper aims to use stepwise regression analysis to select the most influential factors of soil erosion in Shenyang from many influencing factors and provide guidance for people’s production and practice in Shenyang area. When there are many independent variables, some of them may have little influence on the dependent variable, and the factors may not be completely independent and have various interactions. In this case, stepwise regression analysis can be used to select the influencing factors and establish the “optimal” regression equation. The regression model established in this way will have a better predictive effect. In order to determine the influencing factors of natural slope erosion in this region, the rainfall gradients of 10 ° and 15 ° were used to evaluate the effects of slope, rainfall, rainfall intensity, maximum instantaneous rainfall intensity and rainfall duration on the sediment yield The results of stepwise regression analysis show that the three factors of maximum instantaneous rainfall intensity, slope and rainfall have a significant effect on the sediment yield. The amount of sediment is linear with each factor.