基于SWAT构建沙澧河流域分布式水文模型,通过LA-OAT法进行参数敏感性分析,借助数字滤波技术分割基流;以1997—2002年实测流量对各径流成分进行参数率定和验证;初步分析了35种气候变化情景对径流的影响.研究结果表明率定期和验证期总径流模拟相对误差、相关系数和Nash系数分别为-4.3%、0.82、0.73和19%、0.94、0.87.多情景分析表明,降水增加和温度降低将有利于径流增加,其中,最有利的情景为降雨增加15%,温度降低2℃,径流将增加25%.研究成果将为该流域未来水资源规划与管理提供参考. Based on SWAT, a distributed hydrological model of Shahe River Basin was constructed, parameter sensitivity analysis was carried out by LA-OAT method, and base flow was divided by digital filtering technique. Parameters of flow components were calibrated and verified by measured flow in 1997-2002. The effects of 35 climate change scenarios on runoff were analyzed.The results show that the relative error of total runoff simulation in the periodical and validation periods is -4.3%, 0.82, 0.73 and 19%, 0.94 and 0.87 respectively The analysis shows that precipitation increase and temperature decrease will benefit the increase of runoff, of which the most favorable scenario is 15% increase in rainfall, 2 ° C decrease in temperature and 25% increase in runoff.The results of the study will provide the future water resources planning and management of this basin reference.