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针对影响空中交通管理安全风险诸多因素具有的灰色性,引入灰色理论对空中交通管理安全进行风险评价。从人为因素、设备因素、环境因素和管理因素4个方面,提出了空中交通管理安全风险评价的指标体系,采用层次分析法确定评价指标权重,建立基于灰色多层次的空中交通管理安全风险评价模型。并结合实例进行了计算,结果表明,该方法能有效地利用评价指标的信息,科学合理地综合评价空中交通管理安全风险状况,可根据评价结果采取有效措施防止空中交通管理事故的发生。
In view of the grayness of many factors that affect the safety risk of air traffic management, the gray theory is introduced to evaluate the risk of air traffic management safety. According to the four aspects of human factors, equipment factors, environmental factors and management factors, this paper puts forward the indicator system of air traffic management safety risk assessment, and uses analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of evaluation indicators, and establishes a gray multilevel air traffic management safety risk evaluation model . The results show that this method can make effective use of the information of evaluation index, scientifically and reasonably evaluate the status of ATM risk, and take effective measures to prevent the occurrence of ATM accident according to the evaluation results.