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据国家信息中心有关人士预测分析,今年下半年金融形势总体上继续看好,贸易出口增幅有所回落,进口将大幅度上升,通货膨胀也将出现持续大幅回落的态势。认为下半年金融形势总体继续看好的依据主要有:第一,国家银行存款总额仍将维持大于贷款总额的局面;考虑到三季度通胀率将出现大幅度回落,预计国家将适度放松对流动资金贷款的控制。第二,下半年现金投放将得到进一步控制。全年现金净投放可能达到1430亿元,维持在年初计划目标以内。第三,城乡储蓄存款仍将快速增长,今年末城乡储蓄存款余额将比去年多增加648亿元。第四,国家银行支付的工资,以及其他个人支出的增速,将因去年基数较高等原因而出现较大回落。此外,今年第三、四季度我国外贸出口将比去年同期分别增长30.8%和27%,进口增长22.3%和28.4%。全年的贸易进出口将突破3000亿美元大关,全年贸易顺差累计达230亿美元。
According to the forecast and analysis made by relevant persons from the State Information Center, the financial situation in the second half of this year will continue to be optimistic as a whole. The growth rate of trade exports will have somewhat declined, the import will rise sharply, and inflation will also see a sustained and sharp downward trend. In the second half of the year, the reasons for the continued improvement of the financial situation are as follows: First, the total deposits of the state banks will remain above the total loans; considering that there will be a drastic drop in the inflation rate in the third quarter, it is expected that the state will moderately relax its working capital loans control. Second, the cash injection in the second half will be further controlled. The net cash release may reach 143 billion yuan throughout the year, maintaining the target of the beginning of the year. Third, savings deposits in urban and rural areas will continue to grow rapidly. At the end of this year, the balance of savings deposits in urban and rural areas will increase by 64.8 billion yuan more than last year. Fourthly, the wages paid by the State Bank and the growth of other personal expenditures will be greatly reduced due to the high base last year and other reasons. In addition, in the third and fourth quarters of this year, China’s foreign trade exports will have increased by 30.8% and 27% respectively as compared with the same period of last year. Imports have increased by 22.3% and 28.4% respectively. The annual trade import and export will exceed 300 billion U.S. dollars, and the annual trade surplus has totaled 23 billion U.S. dollars.