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5—9月平均气温和的距平值(ΔT5-9)是评估东北地区水稻延迟型冷害的常用指标,但5—9月平均气温和的气候平均值(∑T5-9)统计年代的变化,是否会影响辽宁水稻延迟型冷害评估结果,还有待进一步研究.本文利用中华人民共和国气象行业标准《水稻冷害评估技术规范》(QX/T 182—2013)和补充后的(ΔT5-9),通过计算辽宁52个气象站1961—1990(S1)、1971—2000(S2)、1981—2010(S3)和1961—2010年(S4)4个气候年代的∑T5-9,分别利用冷害发生站数与评估总站数的比值(IOC)和发生频率对辽宁水稻低温冷害时空变化进行分析.结果表明:1961—2010年,辽宁各地水稻生长季的热量条件(即∑T5-9)明显增加并发生了显著的时空变化;利用二次多项式模型对原有的水稻延迟型冷害评估气象指标进行补充完善.S2和S4的气候平均值对研究区水稻延迟型冷害时空规律的判识结果较为相似,但并不完全相同,基于S3气候平均值计算的IOC变异系数均低于其他3个气候平均值计算的IOC变异系数.与水稻典型减产年相比,利用S3气候平均值评估研究期间辽宁水稻延迟型冷害的结果更符合实际情况,可为准确评估气候变化背景下辽宁水稻延迟型冷害时空变化规律提供依据.
The mean value of temperature and mean temperature from May to September (ΔT5-9) is a commonly used indicator to evaluate the delayed type cold damage in the northeastern region. However, the average of the mean temperature in May-September (ΣT5-9) , Whether it will affect the assessment results of delayed chilling damage in rice in Liaoning remains to be further studied.This paper makes use of the technical specifications of chilling harm assessment of rice (QX / T 182-2013) and supplemental (ΔT5-9) of the People’s Republic of China, By calculating ΣT5-9 of four weather climates of 52 weather stations in 1961-1990 (S1), 1971-2000 (S2), 1981-2010 (S3) and 1961-2010 (S4) in Liaoning, the cold damage occurrence stations (IOC) and occurrence frequency of rice in Liaoning Province were analyzed.The results showed that the heat condition (ΣT5-9) of rice growing season increased obviously and occurred in Liaoning Province from 1961 to 2010 The quadratic polynomial model was used to supplement the original meteorological indicators of delayed rice chilling injury assessment.The climate average of S2 and S4 was similar to that of the delayed rice chilling injury in the study area Not exactly the same, based on S3 gas The IOC coefficients of variation calculated by the mean of the two groups were all lower than the IOC coefficients calculated by the other three climatic average values. Compared with the typical reduction of rice production, the results of delayed type chilling injury in Liaoning rice were more in line with the actual situation , Which can provide a basis for accurately evaluating the temporal and spatial variation of delayed chilling damage in Liaoning rice under the background of climate change.