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在电力市场环境下 ,发电公司采用的报价策略对其自身的获利、甚至市场总体的运行行为都可能有相当大的影响。因而 ,研究发电公司应该如何构造最优的报价策略或分析电力市场中发电公司的策略性行为 ,进而考察潜在的市场势力的严重程度 ,是目前相当活跃的一个研究领域。提出了一种基于可能性理论构造发电公司最优报价策略的方法。以发电公司的历史报价数据、市场化改革以前的公开数据和专家的经验性知识等为基础 ,采用模糊集理论来描述竞争对手的报价行为 ,在此基础上构造了发电公司最优报价策略的模糊优化模型 ,给出了求解算法。这种方法特别适用于在电力市场运行初期或电力市场运行规则刚被修改后的时期 ,由于可用的历史数据尚不充分、不能采用概率方法描述竞争对手的报价行为的场合。最后用一个有 6个发电公司参与的电力市场为例 ,说明了所提出的方法的基本特征。
Under the electricity market environment, the quotation strategy adopted by power generation companies may have a considerable impact on their own profitability and even the overall operation of the market. Therefore, it is a very active research field to study how the power generation company should construct the optimal bidding strategy or analyze the strategic behavior of the power generation company in the electricity market, and then examine the seriousness of the potential market power. A method based on the possibility theory is proposed to construct the optimal bidding strategy of generation company. Based on historical quotation data of power generation companies, public data before marketization reform and empirical knowledge of experts, fuzzy sets theory is used to describe the pricing behavior of competitors. On this basis, the optimal pricing strategy for power generation companies Fuzzy optimization model, given the solution algorithm. This method is particularly suitable for situations in which the pricing behavior of competitors is not probabilistic in the early stages of operation of the electricity market or just after the operation rules of the electricity market have been modified, since the available historical data are not sufficient. Finally, using a power market with 6 power generation companies as an example, the basic characteristics of the proposed method are illustrated.