论文部分内容阅读
文章分析了本刊1988年第3期刊登的《一种研究经济发展趋势的数学方法》一文存在的问题:(1)六条拟合线误差太大,数学处理失当,拟合无效;(2)经对1973～1977、1977～1981年段线性拟合可信性F检验法鉴定计算,判定1973～1977年段不宜采用线性拟合模型。提出使用最小二乘法和图上作业方法作为研究经济发展趋势的一种数学方法和实用方法,摒弃该文所荐方法。以该文所给数据为例,使用最小二乘法和图上作业方法研究经济发展趋势,结果远较该文精度为高。同时指出,趋势研究可以按时间分段进行,但不必对接头点连续条件作强制约束;用经典或修正最小二乘法拟合时,通过调整方程次数,总体效果可以得到调整,但接头多值差异一般难以全部消赊。最后提出使用数学方法作为定量研究经济发展趋势的方向应当肯定。经贸活动,特别是长期经贸活动中,经贸政策及其连续性、贸易国商情及信息数据分析等都需通过使用数学方法综合定量评定予以指导,以避免短期行为造成失误。
The article analyzes the problems in the article “A Mathematical Method for Studying the Economic Development Trend” published in the 3rd issue of 1988, (1) the error of the six fitting lines is too large, the mathematical processing is improper and the fitting fails; (2) After 1973 ~ 1977, 1977 ~ 1981 period fitting reliability F test method to determine the period from 1973 to 1977 should not be used linear fitting model. A mathematical method and a practical method to study the trend of economic development are put forward by using the least square method and the operation method on the graph, and the method recommended in this article is discarded. Taking the data given in this paper as an example, we study the trend of economic development by using the least square method and the on-the-job method. The result is far more accurate than the text. At the same time, it is pointed out that the trend research can be carried out in time, but it is not necessary to impose constraints on the continuous condition of the joint. When fitting with the classical or modified least-squares method, the overall effect can be adjusted by adjusting the number of equations. However, Generally difficult to eliminate all credit. Finally, the use of mathematical methods as a quantitative study of the direction of economic development trend should be affirmed. Economic and trade activities, especially long-term economic and trade activities, economic and trade policies and their continuity, trade country business and information data analysis, etc. must be guided by a comprehensive quantitative assessment using mathematical methods to avoid short-term mistakes.