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在德国,疫苗接种常务委员会(STIKO)已于2007年3月建议12~17岁的女孩接种疫苗预防最致癌的HPV16/18型。我们为人乳头瘤病毒感染的自然史和传播建立了一个动态数学模型来评估接种对宫颈癌发病率和死亡率及其前期,以及肛门生殖器疣的影响。我们专注于对自然史模型各个阶段的流行病学数据进行广泛的模型校准,以及对德国宫颈癌筛查的方式具体执行。我们的模型预测:首先在未来30年中,宫颈癌的发病率和死亡率将大幅减少,这主要是由于20世纪90年代增加了筛选对
In Germany, the Standing Committee on Vaccines and Immunization (STIKO) recommended in March 2007 that girls aged 12 to 17 be vaccinated against the most carcinogenic HPV16 / 18. We have established a dynamic mathematical model for the natural history and transmission of human papillomavirus infections to assess the impact of vaccination on the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer and its antecedents, as well as anal genital warts. We focus on extensive model calibration of epidemiological data at various stages of the natural history model and on how to screen for cervical cancer in Germany. Our model predicts that, for the first time in the next 30 years, the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer will decrease significantly, mainly due to the increased screening in the 1990s