长期收益率对未来的预示能力有可能被高估了,尤其是在利率周期的转折点,这种指引显得最有价值。但本文认为长期收益率远非作为透视未来的窗口,低收益率可能反映了个人投资者非常普通的动机,而这些投资者对于未来预测影响有限。本文意在探索当长期收益率变化时,影响长期收益的潜在驱动因素。 Long-term rate of return on the ability to predict the future may be overestimated, especially at the turning point in the interest rate cycle, this guide is the most valuable. But this paper argues that long-term returns are far from a window to the future. Low yields may reflect very ordinary motivations for individual investors who have limited impact on future projections. This article is intended to explore the underlying drivers that affect long-term returns when long-term returns change.