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侵权的认定是司法过程的结果,无论是加害人还是被害人,对于法院是否最终认定行为构成侵权,他们事前的观察都具有不确定性。本文通过引入贝叶斯法则予以定量分析,认为当事人对侵权行为的事前判断具有不确定性,侵权的不确定性对侵权法预防功能和替代性纠纷解决机制的运作存在着消极影响,并指出侵权制度的明晰性和侵权法法律适用的稳定性能使当事人事前对行为是否构成侵权做出较为准确的判断。侵权法一般条款的法律适用模式和侵权的类型化对减少不确定性有重要意义。在贝叶斯法则分析的基础上,对《侵权责任法》中的一般条款和类型化问题进行了解析,并从司法解释、最高人民法院公布指导性案例等方面对《侵权责任法》的法律适用提出了优化建议。
The identification of infringement is the result of the judicial process. Whether it is a perpetrator or a victim, the infringement of the court’s final cognizance of behavior constitutes an uncertainty as to their prior observation. By introducing the Bayesian rule, this article analyzes the uncertainty of the parties’ pre-judgment on infringement. The uncertainty of the infringement has a negative impact on the prevention of tort law and the operation of the alternative dispute resolution mechanism. It also points out that the infringement The clarity of the system and the stability of the law applicable to the tort law enable the parties to make a more accurate judgment as to whether the act constituted infringement beforehand. The legal mode of application of the general provisions of tort law and the type of infringement are of great significance in reducing the uncertainty. Based on the analysis of Bayesian law, this article analyzes the general clauses and types in Tort Liability Law, and analyzes the law of Tort Liability Law from the aspects of judicial interpretation and the Supreme People’s Court publishing guiding cases Suitable for the proposed optimization.