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基本观点信贷投放爆发性增长和M2恢复性反弹,显示中央政府经济刺激计划和宽松的货币政策正在发挥作用。充裕的M2和信贷投放为经济增长提供了强劲的资金支持,为走出经济困境提供了重要保障。M1增速下滑和信贷结构性失衡说明:经济活动尚不活跃,微观主体信心还有待恢复,自发性投资需求尚未反弹,房地产市场仍然低迷,中小企业融资环境并未得到明显改善。如何引导信贷资金从银行体系向最需要的实体经济领域流动至关重要。我们预测,全年信贷增量将呈现前高后低的走势;M2增速将高位运行;在经济全面回暖之前,M1增速难有大幅反弹。
Fundamentals The explosive growth in credit availability and the recovery from M2 suggest that the central government’s stimulus package and loose monetary policy are playing a role. Ample M2 and credit supply have provided strong financial support for economic growth, providing an important guarantee for getting out of economic difficulties. M1 growth slowdown and structural imbalance of credit shows that economic activity is not yet active and the confidence of the micro-entities remains to be restored. The demand for spontaneous investment has not rebounded yet. The real estate market is still in the doldrums, and the financing environment for SMEs has not been significantly improved. How to guide the flow of credit funds from the banking system to the real-needed sectors that are most needed is of crucial importance. We forecast that the credit growth for the full year will show the trend of high and low growth; the growth of M2 will be at a high level; and it is unlikely that the growth rate of M1 will rebound sharply until the economy is fully warmed up.