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SPRING Festival celebrations last February heralded the Year of the Snake according to the Chinese zodiac， and much bandying about of the phrase “spirited dance of the golden snake，” which signifies a year of vitality and prosperity. Anxiety about the world economy nonetheless persists. The ongoing slump in some of the world’s most developed countries gives little hope of an imminent turnaround in the world economy， and a weak global market cannot but inhibit the Chinese economy.
Recent power transitions in some of the world’s major economies， however， imply possibilities of a change for the better. The world looks to these new leaderships to spur world politics and economy.
Yet to Bottom Out
The World Bank predicted in its Global Economic Prospects （GEP） report of January 15， 2013 that 2013 would see little change in world GDP growth. The bank’s projected 2.4 percent growth in 2013 as compared with 2.3 percent in 2012 was 0.6 percent below that estimated in its June 2012 report. The growth of GDP in developing countries in 2013， at 5.5 percent compared with 5.9 percent in its earlier forecast， is expected to be relatively robust – way above the developing world historical average of 3.75 percent. The projected growth of GDP in highincome countries in 2013 is， at 1.3 percent， on a par with that in 2012. The World Bank envisioned lower inflation this year of 3.5 to 4.0 percent. Barring major geopolitical conflicts or civil war in the Middle East， prices of bulk commodities such as oil are expected either to stay as they are or fall.
The anticipated lackluster growth in 2013 is largely attributed to the faltering economy in the developed world. The impact of the credit bubble burst that brought on the 2008 financial crisis is still palpable on the global market， apparent in the deleverage trend among households and businesses that continues to constrain consumption.
Tougher regulations in the financial sector in the wake of the credit crisis also dampen world economic growth. The Basel III， which strengthens bank reserve requirements， prompts banks to increase lending spreads to compensate for higher funding costs. Austerity policies in Europe have moreover exacerbated the woes of the banking systems of its most vulnerable members， namely Greece and Spain. Imbalances in the Euro Zone have also escalated debt strife， so impeding the European Central Bank in its efforts to grapple with the ongoing financial crisis. Nomura Securities forecast that， having declined 0.5 percent in 2012， the Euro Zone GDP will fall 0.8 percent this year. The decline will likely spread to second-tier economies such as France.
The U.S. debt ceiling is one of the imminent challenges confronting President Obama in his second term. The fiscal cliff deal maintains tax cuts for most Americans but increases rates payable by the more affluent. Multiple adverse political and economic factors in the U.S. are expected to reduce GDP growth by one percentage point this year.
The full scope of the debt ceiling’s impact on the country’s 2013 growth is still not known. Under the worst scenario， wherein the issue remains unresolved in the coming months， government spending would be significantly pared and the U.S. economy would stall at nil growth. If that were the case， European growth could dwindle to -1 percent. Taken as a whole， therefore， economic prospects for Europe and the U.S. in 2013 are bleak to say the least.
Strong Growth in China
Economists are sanguine about the prospects in 2013 for the Chinese economy. Since early 2012 the slowing trend in the world’s second largest economy has been largely checked. There were signs of a robust rebound last September， apparent in the rise of raw material prices， and in October and No-vember China’s Purchasing Managers Index （PMI） edged up to 50.8. Anything above 50 indicates improvement in the economy. Last October manufacturing industry profits rose by 20.5 percent yearon-year， and in November the country’s total social financing aggregate – a broad measure of liquidity– gained 23 percent over the same period in 2011. Last September also saw a reversal of the decline in China’s export and manufacturing output. After slowing to 7.4 percent in the third quarter of last year， China’s GDP growth picked up to 7.7 percent， buoying up the 2012 average to 7.8 percent.
The Bank of China predicts in its report on the 2013 outlook for the country’s macro economy that the troika – comprising export， investment and consumption – that has sustained Chinese growth over the past decades will give way to the new diarchy of investment and consumption. Domestic demand is expected to be the main engine of growth. The bank anticipates a mild recovery in the Chinese economy， whereby GDP grows at around eight percent and there is a three percent rise in the Consumer Price Index. It sees negligible scope for interest cuts by commercial banks this year， and estimates that new RMB loans will likely reach RMB 8.5 trillion. M2 is expected to expand by 14 percent， and China’s social financing aggregate to stand at about RMB 16 trillion. The share of bank loans in this aggregate will steadily fall， entailing shifts in the composition of funding sources in the domestic market. The central bank will further loosen its monetary policies， raising hopes of an escalation in the marketization of the interest rate and exchange rate， as well as globalization of the RMB. China’s economy is anticipated to grow at 8.6 percent this year – a slower rate than in previous years but one that is sustainable. A mild rather than V-shaped rebound alleviates pressure from inflation， which will ease down to three percent， so allowing for the continuation of a loose monetary policy. The Chinese government is expected to adhere to such policy as well as an expansionary financial policy in a bid to sustain modest growth in China’s social financing aggregate. The overwhelming signs that the Chinese economy is back on track for faster growth diminish the likelihood of slashing interest rates. The reform of China’s financial system will hence accelerate， as will globalization of the RMB and convertibility of the currency’s capital account. An estimated 30 percent or more of China’s international trade will be settled in RMB in the coming three years.
But obstacles to future growth remain. Taking foreign trade as an example， and history as a reference， the slowdown in the U.S. and European economies could inflict a nine percent dent in Chinese exports， which will snip GDP growth by one percentage point. A two percentage-point decline from 2011 to 2012 has already resulted in redun- dant production capacity that will take China a year and a half to absorb. Should GDP growth drop another percentage point， it will take China three more quarters to clear its industrial over-capacity. In other words， the anemic economy in the U.S.， Europe and Japan could postpone China’s recovery by nine months.
Nevertheless， nobody disputes that China will still be one of the key engines of world economic growth. HSBC chief economist Stephen King recently remarked that the world economy is walking away from the “U.S. Century” towards the “China Century.” The winners in a new cycle of development in the world economy will be countries and regions close to China geographically and major bulk commodity producers. The losers will be those who miss out opportunities to boost trade with China.
Reform Bonuses
Despite various challenges that the Chinese economy faces， the official succession of the new leadership this March will be a stabilizing force for the country. The new state leaders， headed by Xi Jinping， have made clear their awareness that after 34 years of opening-up and reform China has reached new heights of development， but that domestic problems apparent in its economy and society have also come to a head. The new leadership has sent out clear signals to the public that it will advance reforms in a bid to achieve the Chinese Dream of making China a prosperous， strong， democratic country under the rule of law. Vice Premier Li Keqiang was quoted as saying that， 34 years after the onset of opening-up and reform， China’s demographic dividend is dwindling but bonuses by virtue of reform are surging， bringing hope for future growth. At a meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee last December， General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed that opening-up and reform is always in the present tense， and that the solution to any problem arising in its course lies in opening-up and reform per se. The government should proactively respond to public demand for further reforms and opening-up and rally the people behind a consensus to push ahead reforms in all respects， in a coordinated manner. Xi reiterated at the meeting the concept of “top-level design” for reforms. There has been much public discussion of the issue， but this is the first time China’s top leader has openly addressed it.
Reform is intended to mend faults and bring out the best in the state mechanism. It is moreover expected to foster and bolster the market economy in China under the rule of law， to further emancipate people’s creativity， and to build a country that offers a better livelihood， an honest government and high efficiency. China’s transition will lend steam to both the country’s economy and global development.
Recent power transitions in some of the world’s major economies， however， imply possibilities of a change for the better. The world looks to these new leaderships to spur world politics and economy.
Yet to Bottom Out
The World Bank predicted in its Global Economic Prospects （GEP） report of January 15， 2013 that 2013 would see little change in world GDP growth. The bank’s projected 2.4 percent growth in 2013 as compared with 2.3 percent in 2012 was 0.6 percent below that estimated in its June 2012 report. The growth of GDP in developing countries in 2013， at 5.5 percent compared with 5.9 percent in its earlier forecast， is expected to be relatively robust – way above the developing world historical average of 3.75 percent. The projected growth of GDP in highincome countries in 2013 is， at 1.3 percent， on a par with that in 2012. The World Bank envisioned lower inflation this year of 3.5 to 4.0 percent. Barring major geopolitical conflicts or civil war in the Middle East， prices of bulk commodities such as oil are expected either to stay as they are or fall.
The anticipated lackluster growth in 2013 is largely attributed to the faltering economy in the developed world. The impact of the credit bubble burst that brought on the 2008 financial crisis is still palpable on the global market， apparent in the deleverage trend among households and businesses that continues to constrain consumption.
Tougher regulations in the financial sector in the wake of the credit crisis also dampen world economic growth. The Basel III， which strengthens bank reserve requirements， prompts banks to increase lending spreads to compensate for higher funding costs. Austerity policies in Europe have moreover exacerbated the woes of the banking systems of its most vulnerable members， namely Greece and Spain. Imbalances in the Euro Zone have also escalated debt strife， so impeding the European Central Bank in its efforts to grapple with the ongoing financial crisis. Nomura Securities forecast that， having declined 0.5 percent in 2012， the Euro Zone GDP will fall 0.8 percent this year. The decline will likely spread to second-tier economies such as France.
The U.S. debt ceiling is one of the imminent challenges confronting President Obama in his second term. The fiscal cliff deal maintains tax cuts for most Americans but increases rates payable by the more affluent. Multiple adverse political and economic factors in the U.S. are expected to reduce GDP growth by one percentage point this year.
The full scope of the debt ceiling’s impact on the country’s 2013 growth is still not known. Under the worst scenario， wherein the issue remains unresolved in the coming months， government spending would be significantly pared and the U.S. economy would stall at nil growth. If that were the case， European growth could dwindle to -1 percent. Taken as a whole， therefore， economic prospects for Europe and the U.S. in 2013 are bleak to say the least.
Strong Growth in China
Economists are sanguine about the prospects in 2013 for the Chinese economy. Since early 2012 the slowing trend in the world’s second largest economy has been largely checked. There were signs of a robust rebound last September， apparent in the rise of raw material prices， and in October and No-vember China’s Purchasing Managers Index （PMI） edged up to 50.8. Anything above 50 indicates improvement in the economy. Last October manufacturing industry profits rose by 20.5 percent yearon-year， and in November the country’s total social financing aggregate – a broad measure of liquidity– gained 23 percent over the same period in 2011. Last September also saw a reversal of the decline in China’s export and manufacturing output. After slowing to 7.4 percent in the third quarter of last year， China’s GDP growth picked up to 7.7 percent， buoying up the 2012 average to 7.8 percent.
The Bank of China predicts in its report on the 2013 outlook for the country’s macro economy that the troika – comprising export， investment and consumption – that has sustained Chinese growth over the past decades will give way to the new diarchy of investment and consumption. Domestic demand is expected to be the main engine of growth. The bank anticipates a mild recovery in the Chinese economy， whereby GDP grows at around eight percent and there is a three percent rise in the Consumer Price Index. It sees negligible scope for interest cuts by commercial banks this year， and estimates that new RMB loans will likely reach RMB 8.5 trillion. M2 is expected to expand by 14 percent， and China’s social financing aggregate to stand at about RMB 16 trillion. The share of bank loans in this aggregate will steadily fall， entailing shifts in the composition of funding sources in the domestic market. The central bank will further loosen its monetary policies， raising hopes of an escalation in the marketization of the interest rate and exchange rate， as well as globalization of the RMB. China’s economy is anticipated to grow at 8.6 percent this year – a slower rate than in previous years but one that is sustainable. A mild rather than V-shaped rebound alleviates pressure from inflation， which will ease down to three percent， so allowing for the continuation of a loose monetary policy. The Chinese government is expected to adhere to such policy as well as an expansionary financial policy in a bid to sustain modest growth in China’s social financing aggregate. The overwhelming signs that the Chinese economy is back on track for faster growth diminish the likelihood of slashing interest rates. The reform of China’s financial system will hence accelerate， as will globalization of the RMB and convertibility of the currency’s capital account. An estimated 30 percent or more of China’s international trade will be settled in RMB in the coming three years.
But obstacles to future growth remain. Taking foreign trade as an example， and history as a reference， the slowdown in the U.S. and European economies could inflict a nine percent dent in Chinese exports， which will snip GDP growth by one percentage point. A two percentage-point decline from 2011 to 2012 has already resulted in redun- dant production capacity that will take China a year and a half to absorb. Should GDP growth drop another percentage point， it will take China three more quarters to clear its industrial over-capacity. In other words， the anemic economy in the U.S.， Europe and Japan could postpone China’s recovery by nine months.
Nevertheless， nobody disputes that China will still be one of the key engines of world economic growth. HSBC chief economist Stephen King recently remarked that the world economy is walking away from the “U.S. Century” towards the “China Century.” The winners in a new cycle of development in the world economy will be countries and regions close to China geographically and major bulk commodity producers. The losers will be those who miss out opportunities to boost trade with China.
Reform Bonuses
Despite various challenges that the Chinese economy faces， the official succession of the new leadership this March will be a stabilizing force for the country. The new state leaders， headed by Xi Jinping， have made clear their awareness that after 34 years of opening-up and reform China has reached new heights of development， but that domestic problems apparent in its economy and society have also come to a head. The new leadership has sent out clear signals to the public that it will advance reforms in a bid to achieve the Chinese Dream of making China a prosperous， strong， democratic country under the rule of law. Vice Premier Li Keqiang was quoted as saying that， 34 years after the onset of opening-up and reform， China’s demographic dividend is dwindling but bonuses by virtue of reform are surging， bringing hope for future growth. At a meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee last December， General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed that opening-up and reform is always in the present tense， and that the solution to any problem arising in its course lies in opening-up and reform per se. The government should proactively respond to public demand for further reforms and opening-up and rally the people behind a consensus to push ahead reforms in all respects， in a coordinated manner. Xi reiterated at the meeting the concept of “top-level design” for reforms. There has been much public discussion of the issue， but this is the first time China’s top leader has openly addressed it.
Reform is intended to mend faults and bring out the best in the state mechanism. It is moreover expected to foster and bolster the market economy in China under the rule of law， to further emancipate people’s creativity， and to build a country that offers a better livelihood， an honest government and high efficiency. China’s transition will lend steam to both the country’s economy and global development.