应用时间序列分析方法,将年入库水量时间序列通过趋势项、周期项和平稳随机项的分析、识别与提取,建立了时序递阶组合模型。应用该模型来预报白龟山水库年入库水量。分析结果表明,该模型概念清晰、结构简单,模拟预报白龟山水库年入库水量具有较高的精度。 By using the method of time series analysis, the time sequence of annual water inflow was established through the analysis, identification and extraction of trend items, periodic items and stationary random items, and a time series combination model was established. This model is used to predict the annual water storage of Baiguishan Reservoir. The analysis results show that the model is clear in concept and simple in structure, and has a high precision in simulating and forecasting the water quantity of Baikashan Reservoir in a year.